Apparently, the fight over raising the debt ceiling, the debt, taxes and spending cuts is not just nothing new, it's actually a thing they call an "Economic Stabilization War of Attrition" which even has mathematical principles behind it where you can predict how long it will go on, which side will win, and what the outcome will be based on the number of people involved, the current will of the people, the current state of the economy, and the overall stakes.
I don't understand the math, but even without that understanding, I found this paper (or rather, a wiki about the paper) is very interesting. It is about the mathematics behind the politics of economic stabilization:
<a href=http://www.edegan.com/wiki/index.php/Alesina_Drazen_(1991)_-_Why_Are_Stabilizations_Delayed>Why Are Stabilizations Delayed</a>
<a href=http://www.edegan.com/wiki/index.php/Alesina_Drazen_(1991)_-_Why_Are_Stabilizations_Delayed>Why Are Stabilizations Delayed</a>
I showed it to my Romanian friend Mircea during a discussion where he was suggesting that the United States reprint and re-issue new currency, and all of the various reasons why he felt that it would be a good idea.
Mircea then commented, "I read that page, interesting in formulas, some might be good indeed, But here we do not have so much time for theory man, we did it here, it was on other places too, even in US during Abraham Lincoln happened as well. So what is the problem then? too much political biased there, too much inner greediness, come on.
They should combine forces for such procedure man, monetary stabilization of US dollar is not a matter of republican / democrates position, it is a NATIONAL INTEREST priority there, can't you see it?"
They should combine forces for such procedure man, monetary stabilization of US dollar is not a matter of republican / democrates position, it is a NATIONAL INTEREST priority there, can't you see it?"
He pointed out, as an example of such an achievement, the Hoover dam, which he had recently visited.
Yes, the Hoover Dam, the Apollo project, the International Space Station, the Large Hadron Collider, The Internet... they are all great achievements of mankind working harmoniously to make the world better.
However, doing anything radical to stabilize the American economy is another matter, because this time it is not about achievement, rather, it's a war.
I have no doubt that the type of stabilization he was talking about would be very effective, but something as radical as changing the currency would require a complete collapse of the economy on a very personal level here.
The problem is, thus far, the economic problems are not painful enough to outweigh doing something that Revolutionary (with a capital-R).
Also, there are really two separate things happening simultanously:
1. A global recession of almost unprecedented scale
2. A debt crisis
These two things seem to be feeding each other. Most of the people I listen to say that the recession was caused mostly by bad banking and lending practicies, and to a lesser extent, the wars, and finally by accelerated growth in the emerging economies like India and China, driving up the prices of oil and steel.
The solution to the recession should have been (they say) to let it work itself out. But what happened was the democrats (and to a lesser extent president Bush) chose to spend trillions of dollars bailing out the banks, the automobile industry, and even the american people by sending everyone checks.
Then, maybe a little drunk with power, the democrats also "nationalized" our health care economy (to go into effect in 2014) which added another trillion dollars to the debt.
So now, a Stabilization is required because the growing debt cannot be paid for by the current tax levels. Taxes must be increased to stop the debt from growing, and to start bringing it back down, however long that takes, but as long as it is on a negative trajectory, due to an annual revenue surplus, whether by higher taxes or budget cuts or both, everything will be fine as is, and it will just take a generation to reign in that debt. It is what it is.
However, the republicans are angry because this particular stabilization fight is over a problem that they feel never should have been created in the first place, beginning with blaming the democrats over the mortgage banking crisis, to contributing to the debt with the stimulus and health care reform.
I have no doubt that the type of stabilization he was talking about would be very effective, but something as radical as changing the currency would require a complete collapse of the economy on a very personal level here.
The problem is, thus far, the economic problems are not painful enough to outweigh doing something that Revolutionary (with a capital-R).
Also, there are really two separate things happening simultanously:
1. A global recession of almost unprecedented scale
2. A debt crisis
These two things seem to be feeding each other. Most of the people I listen to say that the recession was caused mostly by bad banking and lending practicies, and to a lesser extent, the wars, and finally by accelerated growth in the emerging economies like India and China, driving up the prices of oil and steel.
The solution to the recession should have been (they say) to let it work itself out. But what happened was the democrats (and to a lesser extent president Bush) chose to spend trillions of dollars bailing out the banks, the automobile industry, and even the american people by sending everyone checks.
Then, maybe a little drunk with power, the democrats also "nationalized" our health care economy (to go into effect in 2014) which added another trillion dollars to the debt.
So now, a Stabilization is required because the growing debt cannot be paid for by the current tax levels. Taxes must be increased to stop the debt from growing, and to start bringing it back down, however long that takes, but as long as it is on a negative trajectory, due to an annual revenue surplus, whether by higher taxes or budget cuts or both, everything will be fine as is, and it will just take a generation to reign in that debt. It is what it is.
However, the republicans are angry because this particular stabilization fight is over a problem that they feel never should have been created in the first place, beginning with blaming the democrats over the mortgage banking crisis, to contributing to the debt with the stimulus and health care reform.
Democrats, on the other hand are anry because they think they were dealt a bad hand in 2006 / 2008 and are being thwarted at every turn by the republicans who only want them to fail.
Add to that, the fact that we are still in a deep recession which can only be cured by a private sector economy that already thinks it's (T)axed (E)nough (A)lready, and the Stabilization War over miniscule changes in policy is raging on and on with no attrition or concession on either side.
(So imagine trying to even broach the subject in the halls of congress of a currency swap. We would rip each other to pieces over here.)
I agree that the math (from the linked page) can only be proven in retrospect (as if I know anything about that). Also, this time, (as they always say) "It's different". This is not just the same tired old political cat-fight over taxes vs. spending. This is an attempted revolution unfolding slowly before our eyes, based on a plan which started in the mid-1900's by the CPUSA, the Soviet Union, and the labor unions.
Add to that, the fact that we are still in a deep recession which can only be cured by a private sector economy that already thinks it's (T)axed (E)nough (A)lready, and the Stabilization War over miniscule changes in policy is raging on and on with no attrition or concession on either side.
(So imagine trying to even broach the subject in the halls of congress of a currency swap. We would rip each other to pieces over here.)
I agree that the math (from the linked page) can only be proven in retrospect (as if I know anything about that). Also, this time, (as they always say) "It's different". This is not just the same tired old political cat-fight over taxes vs. spending. This is an attempted revolution unfolding slowly before our eyes, based on a plan which started in the mid-1900's by the CPUSA, the Soviet Union, and the labor unions.
Rrrrrrt - What?
I have some logic to back that up:
3 Points:
Point 1. Barack Obama campaigned on a promise that he would "Fundamentally Transform America" which can only be literally interpreted as a polar shift in government. Americans mostly do not want to be transformed, and if they do, they don't want "The Government" to be the motor of transformation. Americans do not want "change" once this word has been actually defined to them. They will resist, successfully.
Fundamental Transformation actually means redistribution of wealth, something long and constantly sought after by democrats, liberals, Black Liberation Theology (Obama's church), and of course, socialists and communists and most of the young, innocently ignorant do-gooders, plus the politicians who take advantage of them.
Point 2. Americans are scared to death of communism. Most Americans consider socialism to be the gateway to communism, merely a stepping stone. American communists point that out, by the way. Therefore, all acts of communism and socialism must be performed with great stealth, or they will be shut down by the American people.
Anything that has ever happened in history is magnified and rebroadcast, like a bull-horn in the face of the consumers of American media. Anything that even hints of a historical connection, or parallel with communism, fascism, totalitarianism, etc, EVEN IF IT'S NOT ACCURATE, drive people into the streets (and eventually the polls). Examples of this include the "1938 Germany", the Weimar Republic, "having a September 10 mindset", communist revolutions, books like Animal Farm, Atlas Shrugged, etc.
The population of the United States is now officially in a perpetual state of freaking out, and the media is shoveling data like coal into a furnace to fuel this stasis. This is the environment within which serious politicians are struggling to make progress.
Point 3. The American Dollar is the defacto exchange currency of the world. This means we can get away with murder and do whatever we want.
Therefore, in order to fundamentally transform the United States, the only thing that will ever allow this to happen is to collapse, or at least marginalize the dollar. That process devalues the currency.
Part of the strategy in making this happen is to run up a huge national debt, using any excuse they can think of (which has been done, now).
The next thing that will happen will be the devaluation of the currency (btw, that will be the sign to leave the planet if you can).
This crashes the American economy through hyper-inflation and debt default. The only imaginable solution at that point would be a socialist revolution, and the people will allow it because they don't have any other foreseeable solution, and because there will be soldiers pointing guns at them.
Part of this strategy includes selecting the wrong solution to a big problem on purpose. An example of this is the Affordable Healthcare Act, which will break the healthcare system in this country. The only way to clean up after that, is to nationalize it completely.
Education of the masses is the only panacea. People can't be fooled and manipulated if they know what is going on. Our culture and popular media is now beginning to elevate "Carnival Barkers" to the stature of News Press, and the main-stream news media is being actively discredited into oblivion for it's openly biased, anti-American, anti-capitalist, anti-conservative, anti-republican taint.
And this is happening by the free market, which means the "Carnival Barkers" are striking a powerful chord within the consciousness of the people. Hopefully this will make some kind of difference.
I have some logic to back that up:
3 Points:
Point 1. Barack Obama campaigned on a promise that he would "Fundamentally Transform America" which can only be literally interpreted as a polar shift in government. Americans mostly do not want to be transformed, and if they do, they don't want "The Government" to be the motor of transformation. Americans do not want "change" once this word has been actually defined to them. They will resist, successfully.
Fundamental Transformation actually means redistribution of wealth, something long and constantly sought after by democrats, liberals, Black Liberation Theology (Obama's church), and of course, socialists and communists and most of the young, innocently ignorant do-gooders, plus the politicians who take advantage of them.
Point 2. Americans are scared to death of communism. Most Americans consider socialism to be the gateway to communism, merely a stepping stone. American communists point that out, by the way. Therefore, all acts of communism and socialism must be performed with great stealth, or they will be shut down by the American people.
Anything that has ever happened in history is magnified and rebroadcast, like a bull-horn in the face of the consumers of American media. Anything that even hints of a historical connection, or parallel with communism, fascism, totalitarianism, etc, EVEN IF IT'S NOT ACCURATE, drive people into the streets (and eventually the polls). Examples of this include the "1938 Germany", the Weimar Republic, "having a September 10 mindset", communist revolutions, books like Animal Farm, Atlas Shrugged, etc.
The population of the United States is now officially in a perpetual state of freaking out, and the media is shoveling data like coal into a furnace to fuel this stasis. This is the environment within which serious politicians are struggling to make progress.
Point 3. The American Dollar is the defacto exchange currency of the world. This means we can get away with murder and do whatever we want.
Therefore, in order to fundamentally transform the United States, the only thing that will ever allow this to happen is to collapse, or at least marginalize the dollar. That process devalues the currency.
Part of the strategy in making this happen is to run up a huge national debt, using any excuse they can think of (which has been done, now).
The next thing that will happen will be the devaluation of the currency (btw, that will be the sign to leave the planet if you can).
This crashes the American economy through hyper-inflation and debt default. The only imaginable solution at that point would be a socialist revolution, and the people will allow it because they don't have any other foreseeable solution, and because there will be soldiers pointing guns at them.
Part of this strategy includes selecting the wrong solution to a big problem on purpose. An example of this is the Affordable Healthcare Act, which will break the healthcare system in this country. The only way to clean up after that, is to nationalize it completely.
Education of the masses is the only panacea. People can't be fooled and manipulated if they know what is going on. Our culture and popular media is now beginning to elevate "Carnival Barkers" to the stature of News Press, and the main-stream news media is being actively discredited into oblivion for it's openly biased, anti-American, anti-capitalist, anti-conservative, anti-republican taint.
And this is happening by the free market, which means the "Carnival Barkers" are striking a powerful chord within the consciousness of the people. Hopefully this will make some kind of difference.
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